AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC. (AFRM) –

Down 52% In 5 1/2 Months To Our Decline Target

We saw the big decline coming.
Our August 31, 2025 issue warned about
the risks of loan losses and competition, as we said:

“This Buy-Now-Pay-Later business has two major obvious risks:
1. Loan losses.  Evidence so far, while early, is indicating
acceptable loan losses of about 1% of balances.
2. Competition.  Much concern has been expressed about
increasing competition from companies such as PayPal (PYPL)
and Klarna (KLAR), but Affirm seems to be holding its own so far.”

“The other major question is how much growth will there be?
With Affirm’s next quarter guidance for a 20% sales growth rate,
down from 33%, the stock will likely turn down when the growth slows.”

Our September 28, 2025 issue cited
our forward looking $45.00 Decline Target for AFRM
just after it had peaked at $92.56 on September 19, 2025
after tripping our $90 Sell Trigger on September 16, 2025.

AFRM then fell to $43.72 on March 3, 2026,
achieving and exceeding our $45 Decline Target,
and providing major gain opportunity to Subscribers in 3 different ways:

1. Anyone who used our Sell Trigger to sell short
back in September 2025 could have
covered as low as $60.29 on November 21, 2025
for short sale gains up to 34% in 2 months.

2. Anyone who held on to short positions longer
could have covered on March 3, 2026 as low as $43.72
for short sale gains up to 52% in 5 1/2 months.

3. Anyone who passed up
on buying a long position in AFRM should very happy,
as they avoided losses of up to 52% in 5 1/2 months.

AFRM’s valuation metrics have been cut in half to 4.5x Price/Sales,
27x Forward Price/Earnings, 6.3x Price/Tangible Book Value,
and a $15.8 Billion market cap – lower, but still not a great bargain.

Sometimes it takes a while,
but eventually valuation metrics do matter.

 

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The information herein is provided solely to inform
and is not intended as, and is not to be construed as,
investment advice or as an investment recommendation.
Readers are advised to make their own investment decisions
and accept all responsibility thereof.
There is always risk of loss in publicly-traded stock trading & investing.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.